S&P 500 streaks without a 5% correction

Mar 21, 2024


VTS Community,

Ending another week at yet again the market is perfectly happy just coasting along and creeping higher without incident.  I'm hearing a lot of chatter on Twitter, plus a little in my emails, talking about how any day now the market will crash.  Well, maybe, of course that could happen at any time. 

Fortunately we have systematic strategies that allow us to stay in the game for as long as it's beneficial, but we're nimble and always ready to cycle out into safety positions on a single day notice if necessary.

Until then, we keep our foot on the gas and profit from the trend.

It's now been 101 trading days allocated to aggressive positions in the Defensive Rotation Strategy, and just 1-2 days shy of that in our other tactical strategies.  We've profited from the entire run up.


Given our current success with our VTS strategies, one might think this has been one of the longest stretches of success ever in the stock market right?


Here are the longest S&P 500 streaks without seeing a 5% correction:

* You can see at the very bottom, that's the current streak now, 101 days...


The current streak we're on doesn't even register in the top 20.  In fact it's outside of the top 30 if I went that far down.  Now I'm not saying it hasn't been a good one, our strategies are crushing it and I would have no complaints at all if it just kept going.  That's the point of investing right, to catch the good trends and ride them to the end?


30,000 foot perspective 

The point of me sharing data with everyone though is to put things in perspective.  If you think the market simply must crash soon because it's been stable for too long, that's not a good gauge for investing signals.  For all we know this current 101 day streak will turn into 200, 300, or more? 

We need quantifiable ways to know when to ride a trend, and when to get off, BEYOND just our gut instincts or how we feel about the current market.  To me there's no better signals than the Volatility complex.  I share a lot of that Volatility data in our dashboard in every daily email to subscribers.

You will see when the Volatility metrics are flashing warning signs and it's time for us to exit to safety.  The VIX futures, the VX30:VIX roll yield, the Cash VIX Oscillator, and many more.  They will start to roll over and give us the sign to exit to safety.  

Until then, it's full steam ahead!

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